Hurricane Sally Ch. 1: The Forecast

It’s time to talk about Hurricane Sally.  And, I believe the best place to start that discussion, because that storm was such a shock to many lifelong sailors in Pensacola, is with the forecast.  After Sally ripped through, so many people asked Phillip and I—along with I’m sure just about every other boat owner in Pensacola: Why didn’t you leave?  Why didn’t you haul?  Why did so many leave their canvas up?  I even overheard a guest at a restaurant overlooking the wreckage of our once-beautiful Palafox Marina ask her friend: “Why didn’t they just go out in the Bay and ride it out there safely?”  

‘Ride out’ 15-foot seas and 120+ mph winds pushing you to shore … and do it … safely?  Psshh!  

But, I understand people who do not own a boat or who do not sail or cruise, simply don’t understand a few unfortunate truths about marine weather forecasts and storm prep:

  1. A forecast is just that, a prediction, an estimate. Nothing is truly certain until 24 hours out.  
  2. The decision to haul must be made 3-5 days in advance, when nothing is certain.
  3. Moving the boat in the last 24 hours is dicey, dangerous, and no guarantee.  

Why?  Because hurricanes are generally a few hundred miles wide, traveling on unpredictable paths.  Even if you think you should move the boat in the final hours, deciding which direction to go is incredibly difficult. And, most sailboats can only go 5-7 mph, at their top speed, which requires the winds and seas be favorable (conditions in a storm are rarely favorable).   Sailors can’t get anywhere fast, much less travel the likely hundreds of miles it might take to get out of the cone of uncertainty, which is constantly shifting anyway.  But, the cone and the NOAA forecasts are the best predictions we have to go on. In our opinion, even if you are in the cone of uncertainty, choosing to leave the dock to sail in a storm when you don’t have to (i.e., when the only goal is to save the boat) is just an unnecessary bodily risk.

While I’m on the topic, I’ll include a word about NOAA’s cone of uncertainty, a bit of which I learned myself in researching to write this piece. The cone (sample below) represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (NOAA has calculated over decades) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle which forms the cone is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a five-year sample fall within the circle. The cone has been enlarged over the years to reduce the error rate. Thus, despite the name of the cone, its highly calculated and time-tested goal is to be as certain as possible. You can learn more about NOAA’s Cone of Uncertainty here.

Sample NOAA Cone of Uncertainty

Unfortunately, NOAA’s prediction for Hurricane Sally in the final days before the storm was the most inaccurate many of us sailors in Pensacola can remember. We were never encouraged to leave our marina, under even a voluntarily evacuation or a mandatory one, which is very telling. We had several boats in our marina who had travelled in the 3-4 days before the storm from Louisiana east to our marina in an effort to get out of Sally’s expected path. The bottom line is, Hurricane Sally just stunned us all.  No one expected it to come to our shore, our marina, with such ferocity until it was simply too late.  It wasn’t until within 12 hours of her vicious landfall that we realized where her sights were truly set and that we were about to be hammered by her most unforgiving northeast quadrant.  What was an expected tropical storm brought us 120+ mph winds in our marina and 15-foot waves in the Bay crashing over the marina seawall. It was an attack the boats and docks in the marina simply could not withstand.

I write this to share with you all and let you see what Phillip and I, along with virtually every other boat owner in Pensacola (many now devastated by the loss of their beloved girls), saw as Sally approached.  This was our weather timeline in the days before the storm:

Friday, September 11:

Sally is a tropical depression only, rolling over the southern tip of Florida.  She is predicted to turn into a tropical storm in the Gulf and go straight toward the Mississippi-Louisiana border.  If Phillip and I are going to haul Plaintiff’s Rest out for Storm Sally (which NOAA did not predict at any point to become a hurricane), this is the day it is offered under our hurricane haul-out plan.   The option is: confirm we will haul tomorrow or stay in the water.  As our most extreme measure for protecting the boat from a storm, hauling out is something Phillip and I are inclined to do only when there is a likely threat a hurricane will make landfall. As that was not the forecast at the time, we decided to stay put.

Saturday, September 12:

At this time, Storm Sally is predicted to become a Cat 1 hurricane and strike the LA-MS border, almost 200 miles to the west of us, on Tuesday evening.  Pensacola is in the far east edge of the cone of uncertainty and is under a tropical storm watch (not warning) only.  A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when sustained winds of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph) or higher associated with a tropical cyclone are not certain but possible in 36 hours or less.  You can learn more about the National Weather Service’s storm warnings here.

Sunday, September 13:

Storm Sally is still on track for the LA-MS border as a Cat 1, showing a hook to the east after she makes landfall.  At this point, Pensacola is entirely outside the cone of uncertainty.  The city is under a tropical storm warning. In increasing from a Watch to a Warning, the National Weather Service changes the prediction from a possibility of tropical storm conditions to an expectation. Meaning, at this time, we are to expect winds of 34 to 63 kt (39 to 73 mph) or higher that may be accompanied by storm surge.   Some boaters expect we might get winds of 40-50 knot winds in the marina, perhaps.  Phillip and I spend the afternoon taking down the dodger and tying additional lines.  We leave our bimini on as the marina typically shuts power down for a storm and we wanted to make sure the bilge pumps could perform in case the unexpected happened.  Our head sail is already down. We secure the halyards and the main sail in her stack pack.  We fasten chafe guards on our additional lines and help other friends in the marina prep their boats for an expected tropical storm.  Although Palafox Marina is notorious for urging owners to leave the marina with just the slightest hint that a storm may come (they are very conservative in their weather predictions, with a strong desire to evacuate in the event of a possible storm to preserve the docks), we receive no encouragement to leave, not even a request for voluntary evacuation.

Monday, September 14

Storm Sally is still on track for the LA-MS border, predicted to hit as a Cat 1 and then hook to the east and travel to the north of us heading northeast.  Pensacola is just outside the cone of uncertainty and under a tropical storm warning only.  No additional prep is undertaken as we are expecting only heavy rains and winds of potentially 30-50 knots in the marina, at most.  Several feet of storm surge is expected but does not worry us as we are on floating docks.

The wind prediction for Monday shows a 50-60% chance of winds between 35-74 mph (tropical storm) in Pensacola. 

Tuesday, September 15:

Sally slowed down considerably over Monday night and is now crawling at 2 mph, no longer moving on her predicted track toward LA but sitting in more of a stall pattern in the Gulf.  The 4:00 p.m. NOAA forecast was the one made every boat owner’s stomach in Pensacola drop like a seventy-pound stone.  

The rapidly-changing forecast has us all concerned that this storm may come with much more force than we had anticipated.  Sally was now predicted to hit as a hurricane on the MS-AL border followed by a sharp turn to the east.  For the first time since Sally’s development, Pensacola is put under a Hurricane Watch, which means hurricane force winds in excess of 74 mph are not simply possible but expected.  Hurricane Sally was then 250 miles wide poised to strike anywhere from Gulfport, MS to Fort Walton Beach, FL, a span of 180 miles.  

Everyone was worried.  Many boaters were calling each other, texting, asking if they should tie more lines, do more prep, try to move the boat, bury their heads, pray, puke, cry?!  Pensacola only had a few hours of daylight left with no place any sailboat owner could safely move their boat to in that timeframe.  In addition, many of us have to travel in the Gulf to go east (because of bridge heights), which wasn’t even an option with Sally out there churning.  With fifteen-foot tall waves that came to our marina early the next morning, we can only imagine what ferocious conditions would have awaited any sailor in the Gulf at that time. Winds in excess of 80 mph? Waves twenty-five feet tall? Whatever the condition, it was not a situation many of us could or would put ourselves in in order to move our boats east. The marina did not issue an evacuation order Tuesday evening as it was simply too late.  When the Tuesday 7 pm advisory was issued, it was clear: Hurricane Sally was coming, and we were all tied in our slips and locked in her path.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

13 Responses to Hurricane Sally Ch. 1: The Forecast

  1. Harry Hewson says:

    Great write-up, and a good example of how we tend to misread the NHC Track charts. The “cone of uncertainty” describes the potential path of the center of the storm, not the effects. In hindsight, it looks like the Sat Sept 12 chart got it about right. The eventual track is in the described cone. What we forget is that a hurricane’s most significant weather occurs in the quadrants to the right side of the storm track, and Sally’s pivot around Pensacola made that even more problematic, creating a bad storm surge problem. One question: do you have a reference for a wind report of 120 mph in Pensacola? The highest report I’ve seen is sustained 61 mph and a max gust to 86 mph reported at NAS Pensacola. Local sailors were not the only folks caught unprepared- we live on Pcola Beach and lots of neighbors didn’t even do the most basic heavy weather prep.

    • anniedike says:

      Thanks for sharing Harry. Yes, some reports included us in the cone, others did not, although we were very close. But, yes, we were caught off-guard entirely for the actual conditions that occurred. I hope you and your neighbors fared okay in Pensacola Beach. Stinks about the bridge. I’m sorry for you if that makes a rough commute. I got the 120 number directly from a sailor who stayed aboard his boat (on the Baylen Street side) for the entire storm, fending off all of the boat and dock carnage that got swept to the north. He said that was the number he saw on his wind anemometer BEFORE it blew off, so who knows the actual number. But, that was a first-hand, eye-witness account. Scares me to the bone to think our baby girl held on during all of that. Yuck, yuck. Thank you for reading and commenting.

  2. Sonya Cox says:

    So scary! Glad you are ok!

  3. Steve says:

    So glad you and Phillip made it through. I’m berthed at Bayou Grande Marina at NAS, on Saturday I prepped for a TS going to NOLA, removed canvas and doubled lines. Sure didn’t expect what we got. Fortunately I had no damage other than a chafed halyard.

    • anniedike says:

      Wow, I am SOOO glad to hear that. We did hear of several boats lost at NAS. We all prepped for a TS! Sally just took a wicked unexpected turn. I’m am thrilled to hear your boat survived. Congratulations Steve! Thanks for sharing!

  4. Dave says:

    Glad you and Philip are Ok, hope Plaintiffs Rest fared well also. Thanks for taking the time to post, and as for all the “expert advice” , in the words of Guy Clark “Spread your arms, hold your breath, and always trust your cape”. No one knows your boat or your situation better than you.

    • anniedike says:

      Wow, that’s a great saying. I’m going to have to borrow that one often. What a testament to bravery and who-knows-what’s-going-to-happen-ness! Thank you for following and commenting. We were very lucky in this storm. Many others were sadly not. But, the good news. There will be a lot of boats that will find warm new happy homes in Pensacola soon!

  5. Jason Deckard says:

    I can speak from experience.I have a 33ft sloop that calls Lake Arthur,La home. We were hit directly from Laura and Delta. Boats that stayed in the harbor did not do well,No matter how they were tied up most did not survive. Larger boats pulled the piles out and played bumper cars with the smaller boats. Seven boats left,two went northbound. The ones that could pass under a 50ft bridge,which one was mine and five went south.We all tied up in small canals and inlets. We would get in the middle and tie up to the trees on either side. Just four points of tie off with 5/8 nylon line. Worried we were,but all boats survived with zero damage for both hurricanes that were a direct hit. I will never stay in a harbor during a hurricane. I rather take my chances on a hook with lots of chain and rode. After surviving two hurricanes I feel very confident in tying up in a canal in the future and I recommend you do the same. I love reading your articles Annie. Thanks and God Bless

    • anniedike says:

      Thank you Jason for sharing this. I’m so glad you fared well during BOTH hurricanes. I’m sure having another come right at you while you were just recovering from the first was a shock, a fright, and just a really unfair feeling. I agree with you on the canals if possible. Unfortunately there are just not many here that are protected enough from our big Bay that we can get to. Unfortunately, we cannot get under a 50-foot bridge. And, there are always other boats in there that make it difficult to find one to yourself, or one that you can keep to yourself. We’ve heard terrible stories from Ivan about that last boater who comes hauling in last minute and drops one measly anchor and then becomes the wrecking ball. But, had we known the ferocity of what was coming, maybe we should have tried. A lot of us have played the “woulda, shoulda, coulda” game after Sally. I appreciate you commenting and following. I’m so glad your baby girl survived. Take care!

  6. Doug Mensing says:

    Glad to hear you guys and your boat survived I’ve been wondering about friends all over up and down the gulf coast I was on my new boat in fort Myers Beach and still having nightmares from hurricane Dorian when I was in the Bahamas friends of mine in gulf shores were tied up in a marina on the north side of the icw people on the south side were beat to pieces sometimes a few blocks can make a difference

    • anniedike says:

      Well said Doug. We had boats right next to us perish, and then we survive? There’s no rhyme or reason to it, and it’s sometimes hard to swallow. I’m glad you were in a safe place this hurricane season. Dorian was stressful as well, but I think being here, boots on the ground, with the wreckage that occurred here made Sally a worse experience for us. Thankfully Great Harbour Cay was spared in Dorian. Again, by some miracle!

  7. Pingback: Ch. 2: Sally Wreaks Her Savagery, in the Dark | Have Wind Will Travel

Leave a Reply